¿Superaremos el límite de los 1,5 ºc en 2024?

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Celeste Saulo, nueva secretaria general de la Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) desde el pasado 1 de enero, ha informado en su primera rueda de prensa con los medios de comunicación que, para este año 2024, la temperatura promedio mundial podría alcanzar aproximadamente 1,5 ºC por encima de los niveles preindustriales (1850-1900), excediendo de esta forma el límite recomendado por el Acuerdo de París. En su presentación ante los medios de comunicación, advirtió que debemos estar unidos, ya que nos enfrentamos a uno de los desafíos más complejos de la humanidad.

mitigacion de las consecuencias del cambio climatico

El mundo enfrenta uno de sus desafíos más complejos, el del cambio climático, ante el cual la humanidad debe actuar como una familia global, unida por responsabilidad compartida, una visión por el futuro de nuestros hijos, y un destino común. Tenemos una oportunidad, una obligación y una posibilidad de cambiar la narrativa en materia climática. 

La científica argentina también alertó sobre la posibilidad de que el fenómeno meteorológico de «El Niño» siga con la tendencia ascendente del aumento de temperaturas en 2024,

Ya se estuvo cerca de los 1,5 ºC en 2023 (se alcanzaron los 1,45 ºC según el último informe de la OMM) y la ciencia dice que es probable que 2024 sea un año más cálido por la incidencia de El Niño. Esperamos por ello estar cerca o por encima de la anomalía de los 1,5 ºC, y superar ese umbral es una advertencia, aunque de lo que tenemos que estar verdaderamente preocupados es sobre la tendencia a largo plazo. La atmósfera y los datos están diciéndonos que debemos actuar. 

2024, Un año marcado en rojo por la crisis climática

Si la temperatura media global supera los 1,5 ºC por encima de los niveles preindustriales durante un período continuado de 10 años, esto indicaría claramente que el Acuerdo de París no se está cumpliendo. Este acuerdo advirtió sobre la posibilidad de un aumento significativo en las catástrofes climáticas si se llega a esta situación. En los 73 años de existencia de la Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM), Celeste Saulo se convierte en la primera mujer en asumir su dirección. La científica latinoamericana ha comentado lo siguiente al respecto.

 

Lo que las mujeres traemos a las organizaciones es diversidad, tenemos diferentes formas de pensar, de buscar soluciones, y no es que sea forzosamente mejor pero es distinto. También ha señalado su intención de priorizar las actividades a nivel regional y en el terreno durante su mandato. Asimismo, se propone trabajar hacia la implementación de sistemas de alerta temprana para prevenir desastres naturales en todos los países del mundo.

Mi objetivo es asegurar que la innovación llega a todos los países miembros, especialmente a aquellos que cuentan con menor nivel de desarrollo. Hay que garantizar que cada ser humano tenga acceso a una oportuna y autorizada información meteorológica y de riesgos climáticos para salvar la mayor cantidad de vidas posibles. 

¿Superaremos permanentemente el nivel de 1´5 °c especificado en el acuerdo de parís?

Hace un par de meses, la Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) anunció que existe un 98% de probabilidad de que al menos uno de los próximos cinco años sea el más cálido registrado hasta la fecha. Además, hay un 66% de probabilidad de que durante al menos uno de esos cinco años se supere temporalmente el límite de 1,5 °C por encima de los niveles preindustriales (1850-1900). Es crucial destacar que esta predicción no implica necesariamente que se supere de forma permanente el límite de 1,5 °C establecido por el Acuerdo de París.

Bajo el Acuerdo de París, cuyo objetivo es combatir el cambio climático e impulsar la transición hacia una economía con bajas emisiones, los países más desarrollados se comprometieron a destinar fondos millonarios a los países menos desarrolladas para mitigar los efectos del cambio climático. Aunque esta meta estaba programada para cumplirse en 2020, lamentablemente no se logró alcanzar el objetivo establecido por la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC).

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